LateModernPeriod1950-2000+

  The dominant component of the Economy of France, FR1=Overall Growth (see the Measurement Matrix in the Notes below). The best short-term (year-to-year) model for FRL20 is the BAU model ( -111.3  < AIC =  -84.59 < -57.77).  When FR1 is shocked (in the graphic above), it increases FR2=(CO2+EF) --an effect that becomes negative over time). A the same time, it decreases FR3=(LU-L-N) , the employment controller that never recovers completely. A shock to the Environmental Controller, FR2=(CO2+EF) , reduces growth and increases Unemployment. Finally, a shock to the  employment controller ,  FR3=(LU-L-N) , decreases growth and decreases environmental damage. Over time (in the graphic above), FR1=(Growth) is reaching a steady state, FR2=(Environmental Damage) reached a peak in the mid-1970s and FR3=(Unemployment) reached a long plateau from the mid-1980s to almost 2000. NOTE: Although a lot of civic conflict regarding the French Economy has to do wi...

  The Trump II Administration has recently imposed 50% Tariffs on Indian imports trying to limit Russian Oil purchases . Whatever the rationale might be for punishing the Indian Economy in this way, the question now is what can India do about it? ChatGPT5 (recently released) reports: Negotiating with the  Trump II Administration  seems pointless (although negotiating with other countries might be useful) so in this post I will focus on diversification and domestic adjustment (see the expanded ChatGPT5 output in the Notes below).  Diversification , in the framework of my State Space Models (see the Boiler Plate ) involves establishing linkages with countries and regions other than the US while domestic adjustment involves technological change. The graphic at the beginning of this post shows future projects for various Geopolitical Alignments and structuring of the Indian economy from the WL20 IN Model . The graphic displays the do...

  The systemic effect of the  Iranian Revolution  was to eliminate cyclical behavior from the System.  Before the Revolution in in 1979, Iran was an unstable, cyclical economy, the cycles being created by Unemployment, Globalization and Environmental damage. After the Revolution, state-space cycles were eliminated. The difference between the two Phase Spaces seems to echo Emile Durkheim's distinction between  Mechanical and Organic solidarity   (see below). You can investigate the effect of stabilizing the Iranian Economy by running the IR_LM model ( here ). Be sure to set SHOCK = FALSE and uncomment the stability lines in the code. The phase Diagram for the period before the Revolution (see above) will look the same but now the movement in Phased Space is toward the center , that is, stable! Notes The IR_LM Measurement Model is: The first state variable (row of the Measurement Matrix,  IR1 ) describes overall growth in the Iranian Economy. The secon...