LateModernPeriod1950-2000+

  Notes Links Economy of Colombia Colombia Colombia Globalization from ChatGPT CO_L20 Measurement Matrix: CO_L20 BAU System Matrix: CO_L20 BAU Stabilized Sytem Matrix: CO_L20 Globalization History CO_L20 Globalization Model

    Notes Reading: The Bubbly Economy of Argentina Seven Futures for Argentina Austerity and Anti-Systemic Protest  (Argentina)

  The dominant component of the Economy of France, FR1=Overall Growth (see the Measurement Matrix in the Notes below). The best short-term (year-to-year) model for FRL20 is the BAU model ( -111.3  < AIC =  -84.59 < -57.77).  When FR1 is shocked (in the graphic above), it increases FR2=(CO2+EF) --an effect that becomes negative over time). A the same time, it decreases FR3=(LU-L-N) , the employment controller that never recovers completely. A shock to the Environmental Controller, FR2=(CO2+EF) , reduces growth and increases Unemployment. Finally, a shock to the  employment controller ,  FR3=(LU-L-N) , decreases growth and decreases environmental damage. Over time (in the graphic above), FR1=(Growth) is reaching a steady state, FR2=(Environmental Damage) reached a peak in the mid-1970s and FR3=(Unemployment) reached a long plateau from the mid-1980s to almost 2000. NOTE: Although a lot of civic conflict regarding the French Economy has to do wi...

  Deterministic Chaos in socio-technical systems is a situation where a model of the system is deterministic but the future path of the system cannot be predicted because it is chaotic. I have always assumed that Chaos in social systems is so dysfunctional  that it could not persist over time. Indeed, the "best" models (using the AIC ), I have found, in macro social systems are often unstable but not chaotic. Here is an example for Switzerland. Two of Sw itzerland's biggest trading partners are the US and Germany ( DE ). However, the CH_LM model driven by outputs from the USL20 and DE_LM models are on the Edge of Chaos (see the graphic above).  Here are the System Matrices for the two models: and the Germany ( DE ) model: One thing to notice is the large coefficient values. Values over 1.0 on the diagonal of the System Matrix indicate instability. Large values > 1.0 on the off-diagonal elements of the System Matrix indicate potential chaos. I have pointed ou...

 

Switzerland's ( CH ) Splendid Geopolitical Isolation  was shattered last week as the Trump II Administration  imposed 39% Tariffs on most Swiss imports (Pharmaceuticals were exempt for the time being ). ChatGPT  reports that there were three main reasons: (1) Trade Imbalances, (2) Lack of "Reciprocity" in Terms of Trade and (3) a Breakdown in Ongoing Negotiations (see more detail in the Notes below). What's going on  between Switzerland ( CH ) and the US ? In terms of my State Space Models (see the Boiler Plate ), Geopolitical linkage between the US and Switzerland would not be beneficial for Switzerland. In the graphic above, using the US_LM model as input would result in immediate collapse; using the USL203 model as input would result in a future of unstable cycles. Switzerland needs to keep it's Geopolitical distance from the US and conduct Business-as-Usual ( BAU ) as much as possible. If that is not possible, taking a Random Walk ( RW ) to find a bet...