LateModernPeriod1950-2000+

   The  Kondratiev Wave  is an important element of  World-Systems Theory . The graphic above is taken from  Andreas Goldschmidt  and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the  Solow-Swan Model ) and I can present some examples. The Iranian Economy prior to 1979  and associated  Tech Bubble .

  Notes Links Economy of Colombia Colombia Colombia Globalization from ChatGPT CO_L20 Measurement Matrix: CO_L20 BAU System Matrix: CO_L20 BAU Stabilized Sytem Matrix: CO_L20 Globalization History CO_L20 Globalization Model

    Notes Reading: The Bubbly Economy of Argentina Seven Futures for Argentina Austerity and Anti-Systemic Protest  (Argentina)

  The dominant component of the Economy of France, FR1=Overall Growth (see the Measurement Matrix in the Notes below). The best short-term (year-to-year) model for FRL20 is the BAU model ( -111.3  < AIC =  -84.59 < -57.77).  When FR1 is shocked (in the graphic above), it increases FR2=(CO2+EF) --an effect that becomes negative over time). A the same time, it decreases FR3=(LU-L-N) , the employment controller that never recovers completely. A shock to the Environmental Controller, FR2=(CO2+EF) , reduces growth and increases Unemployment. Finally, a shock to the  employment controller ,  FR3=(LU-L-N) , decreases growth and decreases environmental damage. Over time (in the graphic above), FR1=(Growth) is reaching a steady state, FR2=(Environmental Damage) reached a peak in the mid-1970s and FR3=(Unemployment) reached a long plateau from the mid-1980s to almost 2000. NOTE: Although a lot of civic conflict regarding the French Economy has to do wi...

  Deterministic Chaos in socio-technical systems is a situation where a model of the system is deterministic but the future path of the system cannot be predicted because it is chaotic. I have always assumed that Chaos in social systems is so dysfunctional  that it could not persist over time. Indeed, the "best" models (using the AIC ), I have found, in macro social systems are often unstable but not chaotic. Here is an example for Switzerland. Two of Sw itzerland's biggest trading partners are the US and Germany ( DE ). However, the CH_LM model driven by outputs from the USL20 and DE_LM models are on the Edge of Chaos (see the graphic above).  Here are the System Matrices for the two models: and the Germany ( DE ) model: One thing to notice is the large coefficient values. Values over 1.0 on the diagonal of the System Matrix indicate instability. Large values > 1.0 on the off-diagonal elements of the System Matrix indicate potential chaos. I have pointed ou...