World-System (1950-2100) Edge of Chaos in Switzerland

 


Deterministic Chaos in socio-technical systems is a situation where a model of the system is deterministic but the future path of the system cannot be predicted because it is chaotic. I have always assumed that Chaos in social systems is so dysfunctional that it could not persist over time. Indeed, the "best" models (using the AIC), I have found, in macro social systems are often unstable but not chaotic. Here is an example for Switzerland.

Two of Switzerland's biggest trading partners are the US and Germany (DE). However, the CH_LM model driven by outputs from the USL20 and DE_LM models are on the Edge of Chaos (see the graphic above).  Here are the System Matrices for the two models:


and the Germany (DE) model:



One thing to notice is the large coefficient values. Values over 1.0 on the diagonal of the System Matrix indicate instability. Large values > 1.0 on the off-diagonal elements of the System Matrix indicate potential chaos.

I have pointed out in an earlier post (here) how the Trump II Administration is tinkering with a World Trading System it does not understand. The tinkering might involve pushing trading partners to the Edge of Chaos.

You can experiment with the CH_LM model here.

Notes




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