World-System (1950-2190) Will US and Israel Attacks on Iran Hurt the World System?

The IMF is warning (here) that US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear facilities could disrupt the World Economy. The major concern seems to be with the impacts on Energy Markets (25% of the seaborn oil trade goes through the Straits of Hormuz). The IMF has been forecasting slower global growth rates and disruptions in Iran would further affect growth prospects. 

The stated intention for bombing Iranian Nuclear facilities is to prevent Iran from getting an atomic bomb.  However, Kenneth Waltz has argued (here) that Iran should get the bomb for nuclear balancing and stability in the Middle East. The Trump II Administration has recently signaled that they want Iran to continue as a strong economy in the World-System. The danger is that bombing Iran would lead to a system collapse similar to Syria (here).

The question again is how important is Iran to the World-System? The graphic above shows that disabling Iran for 20 years would be a big hit for the World System. If Iran is then allowed to recover, the World System would go back to its original path (at least in the W_IR model, here, and until about 2045).

The big problems for the World System start after 2130 when environmental impacts of unstable exponential growth push the system into collapse mode in the WLM model. This is not the only forecast for the World System or even the most likely (more here), but environmental problems continue to be important and continue to be pushed aside by conflict in the Middle East.

The major issue for the World System is stabilizing growth rates. You can experiment with the W_IR model (here) and explore the effects of stabilizing both the World System and the Iranian System growth rates (see comments in the code). You can also explore other impacts within the World System beyond growth.

Notes

You can experiment with the WLM_IR model here. The WLM Measurement Model is:

The first state variable (row of the Measurement Matrix, W1) describes overall growth in the World System. The second state variable, W2, is a Global Temperature controller the World System (W2 = 07705 LivingPlanet +  0.411 P.Wheat. - TEMP). The third state variable, W3, is a Global Market-Environment controller (W3 = 0.712 P.OIL. + 0.461 P.WHeat. - 0.293 TotalFootprint - 0.241 Oil - 0.231 Earths).

The IR_LM Measurement Model is:

The first state variable (row of the Measurement Matrix, IR1) describes overall growth in the Iranian Economy. The second state variable, IR2, describes  Unemployment and Globalization, (IR2 = 0.9091 SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS + 0.335 KOF) and the third state variable, IR3, is a globalization feedback controller, (IR3 = 0.827 KOF - 0.3878 SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS - 0.258 EF - 0.217 EG.USE.COM.KT.OE), for unemployment, ecological footprint and energy use.

Further reading:

• Iranian Revolution a series of events that culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979.

• Strait of Hormuz a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.

• Iran-Contra Affair a political scandal in the United States that centered on arms trafficking to Iran between 1981 and 1986, facilitated by senior officials of the Ronald Reagan administration

• Iran Nuclear Program one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world, has sparked intense international concern.

• Pahlavi Iran the Iranian state under the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty. The Pahlavi dynasty was created in 1925 and lasted until 1979 when it was ousted as part of the Iranian Revolution, which ended the Iranian monarchy and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.

• Iran-Iraq War an armed conflict between Iran and Iraq that lasted from September 1980 to August 1988. Active hostilities began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran and lasted for nearly eight years, until the acceptance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 by both sides.

• Iranian Economy a mixed, centrally planned economy with a large public sector. It consists of hydrocarbon, agricultural and service sectors, in addition to manufacturing and financial services, with over 40 industries traded on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

• The White Revolution a far-reaching series of reforms to aggressively modernize the Imperial State of Iran launched on 26 January 1963 by the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and ended with his overthrow in 1979.

• Modernization Theory holds that as societies become more economically modernized, wealthier and more educated, their political institutions become increasingly liberal democratic and rationalist.

• Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration The United States foreign policy during the presidency of John F. Kennedy from 1961 to 1963 included diplomatic and military initiatives in Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, all conducted amid considerable Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe.

Blog Roll:

• Stabilizing the Iranian Economy Easy but not easy!
  
• A Deep Dive into the Iranian State Space Cycles vs. Control
  
• The Iranian Revolution Still being worked out today.
  
• Will Israel and US Attacks Hurt the World-System? Yes
  
• How Does the Iranian Economy Work? Not like a Neoclassical, free-market economy.
  
• What was the Impact of the Iranian Revolution? Elimination of Cycles!
• Iranian Globalization and Unemployment Created the discontent that led to the Iranian Revolution.
• Iran as a Neoclassical Economy US Technological domination!