LateModernPeriod1950-2000+

  Deterministic Chaos in socio-technical systems is a situation where a model of the system is deterministic but the future path of the system cannot be predicted because it is chaotic. I have always assumed that Chaos in social systems is so dysfunctional  that it could not persist over time. Indeed, the "best" models (using the AIC ), I have found, in macro social systems are often unstable but not chaotic. Here is an example for Switzerland. Two of Sw itzerland's biggest trading partners are the US and Germany ( DE ). However, the CH_LM model driven by outputs from the USL20 and DE_LM models are on the Edge of Chaos (see the graphic above).  Here are the System Matrices for the two models: and the Germany ( DE ) model: One thing to notice is the large coefficient values. Values over 1.0 on the diagonal of the System Matrix indicate instability. Large values > 1.0 on the off-diagonal elements of the System Matrix indicate potential chaos. I have pointed ou...

 

Switzerland's ( CH ) Splendid Geopolitical Isolation  was shattered last week as the Trump II Administration  imposed 39% Tariffs on most Swiss imports (Pharmaceuticals were exempt for the time being ). ChatGPT  reports that there were three main reasons: (1) Trade Imbalances, (2) Lack of "Reciprocity" in Terms of Trade and (3) a Breakdown in Ongoing Negotiations (see more detail in the Notes below). What's going on  between Switzerland ( CH ) and the US ? In terms of my State Space Models (see the Boiler Plate ), Geopolitical linkage between the US and Switzerland would not be beneficial for Switzerland. In the graphic above, using the US_LM model as input would result in immediate collapse; using the USL203 model as input would result in a future of unstable cycles. Switzerland needs to keep it's Geopolitical distance from the US and conduct Business-as-Usual ( BAU ) as much as possible. If that is not possible, taking a Random Walk ( RW ) to find a bet...

  The Trump II Administration has recently imposed 50% Tariffs on Indian imports trying to limit Russian Oil purchases . Whatever the rationale might be for punishing the Indian Economy in this way, the question now is what can India do about it? ChatGPT5 (recently released) reports: Negotiating with the  Trump II Administration  seems pointless (although negotiating with other countries might be useful) so in this post I will focus on diversification and domestic adjustment (see the expanded ChatGPT5 output in the Notes below).  Diversification , in the framework of my State Space Models (see the Boiler Plate ) involves establishing linkages with countries and regions other than the US while domestic adjustment involves technological change. The graphic at the beginning of this post shows future projects for various Geopolitical Alignments and structuring of the Indian economy from the WL20 IN Model . The graphic displays the do...