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The purpose of this blog is to discuss state space models developed for the period 1950-2000 with forecasts typically out to 2100.


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World-System (1950-2190) Will US and Israel Attacks on Iran Hurt the World System?

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The IMF is warning ( here ) that US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear facilities could disrupt the World Economy. The major concern seems to be with the impacts on Energy Markets (25% of the seaborn oil trade goes through the Straits of Hormuz ). The IMF has been forecasting slower global growth rates and disruptions in Iran would further affect growth prospects.  The stated intention for bombing Iranian Nuclear facilities is to prevent Iran from getting an atomic bomb.  However, Kenneth Waltz has argued ( here ) that Iran should get the bomb for nuclear balancing and stability in the Middle East. The Trump II Administration has recently signaled that they want Iran to continue as a strong economy in the World-System . The danger is that bombing Iran would lead to a system collapse similar to Syria ( here ). The question again is how important is Iran to the World-System ? The graphic above shows that disabling Iran for 20 years would be a big hit for the World System. If Ira...
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World-System (1950-2010) How Does the Economy of France Work?

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  The dominant component of the Economy of France, FR1=Overall Growth (see the Measurement Matrix in the Notes below). The best short-term (year-to-year) model for FRL20 is the BAU model ( -111.3  < AIC =  -84.59 < -57.77).  When FR1 is shocked (in the graphic above), it increases FR2=(CO2+EF) --an effect that becomes negative over time). A the same time, it decreases FR3=(LU-L-N) , the employment controller that never recovers completely. A shock to the Environmental Controller, FR2=(CO2+EF) , reduces growth and increases Unemployment. Finally, a shock to the  employment controller ,  FR3=(LU-L-N) , decreases growth and decreases environmental damage. Over time (in the graphic above), FR1=(Growth) is reaching a steady state, FR2=(Environmental Damage) reached a peak in the mid-1970s and FR3=(Unemployment) reached a long plateau from the mid-1980s to almost 2000. NOTE: Although a lot of civic conflict regarding the French Economy has to do wi...
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World-System (1950-2100) Edge of Chaos in Switzerland

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  Deterministic Chaos in socio-technical systems is a situation where a model of the system is deterministic but the future path of the system cannot be predicted because it is chaotic. I have always assumed that Chaos in social systems is so dysfunctional  that it could not persist over time. Indeed, the "best" models (using the AIC ), I have found, in macro social systems are often unstable but not chaotic. Here is an example for Switzerland. Two of Sw itzerland's biggest trading partners are the US and Germany ( DE ). However, the CH_LM model driven by outputs from the USL20 and DE_LM models are on the Edge of Chaos (see the graphic above).  Here are the System Matrices for the two models: and the Germany ( DE ) model: One thing to notice is the large coefficient values. Values over 1.0 on the diagonal of the System Matrix indicate instability. Large values > 1.0 on the off-diagonal elements of the System Matrix indicate potential chaos. I have pointed ou...
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