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The purpose of this blog is to discuss state space models developed for the period 1950-2000 with forecasts typically out to 2100.


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World-System (1950-2190) Will US and Israel Attacks on Iran Hurt the World System?

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The IMF is warning ( here ) that US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear facilities could disrupt the World Economy. The major concern seems to be with the impacts on Energy Markets (25% of the seaborn oil trade goes through the Straits of Hormuz ). The IMF has been forecasting slower global growth rates and disruptions in Iran would further affect growth prospects.  The stated intention for bombing Iranian Nuclear facilities is to prevent Iran from getting an atomic bomb.  However, Kenneth Waltz has argued ( here ) that Iran should get the bomb for nuclear balancing and stability in the Middle East. The Trump II Administration has recently signaled that they want Iran to continue as a strong economy in the World-System . The danger is that bombing Iran would lead to a system collapse similar to Syria ( here ). The question again is how important is Iran to the World-System ? The graphic above shows that disabling Iran for 20 years would be a big hit for the World System. If Ira...
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World-System (1950-2025) Switzerland, the US and Trump Tariffs

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Switzerland's ( CH ) Splendid Geopolitical Isolation  was shattered last week as the Trump II Administration  imposed 39% Tariffs on most Swiss imports (Pharmaceuticals were exempt for the time being ). ChatGPT  reports that there were three main reasons: (1) Trade Imbalances, (2) Lack of "Reciprocity" in Terms of Trade and (3) a Breakdown in Ongoing Negotiations (see more detail in the Notes below). What's going on  between Switzerland ( CH ) and the US ? In terms of my State Space Models (see the Boiler Plate ), Geopolitical linkage between the US and Switzerland would not be beneficial for Switzerland. In the graphic above, using the US_LM model as input would result in immediate collapse; using the USL203 model as input would result in a future of unstable cycles. Switzerland needs to keep it's Geopolitical distance from the US and conduct Business-as-Usual ( BAU ) as much as possible. If that is not possible, taking a Random Walk ( RW ) to find a bet...
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World-System (1950-2100+) What Can India Do About Tariffs?

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  The Trump II Administration has recently imposed 50% Tariffs on Indian imports trying to limit Russian Oil purchases . Whatever the rationale might be for punishing the Indian Economy in this way, the question now is what can India do about it? ChatGPT5 (recently released) reports: Negotiating with the  Trump II Administration  seems pointless (although negotiating with other countries might be useful) so in this post I will focus on diversification and domestic adjustment (see the expanded ChatGPT5 output in the Notes below).  Diversification , in the framework of my State Space Models (see the Boiler Plate ) involves establishing linkages with countries and regions other than the US while domestic adjustment involves technological change. The graphic at the beginning of this post shows future projects for various Geopolitical Alignments and structuring of the Indian economy from the WL20 IN Model . The graphic displays the do...
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